Posted March 3, 2025 · Submitted by Henrik Vasquez, ETH Zurich
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in stable continental interiors is fundamentally constrained by short instrumental catalogues and recurrence intervals that span millennia. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian framework that jointly assimilates paleoseismic, geodetic, and historical observations to constrain earthquake recurrence parameters while propagating epistemic uncertainty explicitly. Applied to three intraplate provinces, the model demonstrates that neglecting epistemic uncertainty can underestimate hazard at long return periods by as much as forty percent, with direct implications for the design of critical infrastructure.
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Henrik Vasquez, Priya Nair (2025). A Bayesian Framework for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in Slow-Deforming Continental Interiors. TerraNova preprint.
Henrik Vasquez, Liam O'Connor
Subsurface fluid injection can reactivate pre-existing faults and induce seismicity, posing a persistent challenge for subsurface energy operations. We couple geomechanical modelling with in-situ basin stress observations to evaluate fault-…
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